· 논문명 :  Probabilistic techno-economic analysis of blue hydrogen production under natural gas price

                and capital cost index uncertainty

· 저  자 :  Dong Guk Kim, Yoo Ri Kim, Dong Hwi Jeong*

· 게재지 : International Journal of Hydrogen Energy (2026, 253, 13667-156268)

· 초록

Blue hydrogen is attracting attention as a practical low-carbon pathway, but its economic viability remains uncertain, especially

in small-scale processes where feedstock and equipment costs strongly affect performance. The long-term economic effects

of time-varying external variables have not been fully explored. Here, using Aspen Plus simulation, time-series forecasting, 

and Monte Carlo simulation, we develop a probabilistic technoeconomic framework that incorporates natural gas price and 

the chemical engineering plant cost index (CEPCI). The natural gas price was modeled using a mean-reverting autoregressive

model, and the CEPCI using a breakpoint autoregressive model. These forecasts were integrated with process simulation 

results to estimate levelized cost of hydrogen distributions and screen operating conditions using P50, P95, and conditional

value at risk(CVaR). The framework enables operating conditions to be evaluated based on both expected cost performance

and upper-tail cost risk under uncertain future market conditions.